Question 4: Assuming the current economic environment will not rebound quickly, how severe will the impact of that environment be on the introduction of iTV applications in U.S. TV households? Explain your answer briefly.
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I took the current economic environment into account in my previous answer. If technology and infrastructure investment comes back sooner, you could probably shave 12-18 months off. |
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Marketing dollars are heavily restricted and if the economy continues to be slow, it will take more time for adoption, however, IPTV is one of the hottest new media so it could advance rabidly with WOM and viral marketing among users. If userd want it, advertisers will find money to fund it. |
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The economic downturn is hitting at the worst possible moment for the DTV roll-out. This will have a significant negative impact on over-the-air television and perhaps cable as well. iTV per se will have to wait for the economy to rebound to reach that 50% mark. However, the increasing use of web-connected game consoles (XBox 360, Wii, etc.) may offer an alternate distribution model. |
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It won't be severe: in times of economic downturn, consumers don't cut down on CE related expenses, or on the cost of Pay TV services. If we figure that most iTV services will come through Service providers, rather than over-the-top solutions (buying CE STBs retail), any slow down won't be on the part of consumer acceptance. There could be a slowdown if service providers stop developing applications. |
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ITV will be a slow process anyway, so the economic slump (which will last th orugh 2013) won't delay things very much. The slow process gives technology and infrastructure companies more time to fine tune and develop their systems... including advertisers trying to figure out how to play in this field. |
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moderate |
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Not at all. TV is one of the last things people give up during rough economic times. The upcoming platform rollout of OCAP/Tru2way and EBIF is the last hurdle, and once this is completed, services will follow quickly. |
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Assuming an energy crisis, inflation, unemployment - a segment of the population will choose low level interactivity (PPV, MOD) in lieu of theaters and their high costs. Additional services beyond that will suffer, as discretionary income is reduced. Teens, however, may become a viable segment assuming gaming is incorporated into the model (e.g. games on demand). |
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It should help push it forward as advertisers look for greater efficiency in ad spending and video service providers look for new ways to monetize their subscriber base for higher CPMs. |
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It will have a dramatic setback. One of the biggest challenges to getting any traction in what is now existing iTV applications and experiences has been the failure of a proven business model. Broadcasters and Cable operators already have an ad supported business model that works and is profitable. iTV programming is costly to create, takes alot of technology infrastructure to support and (with the possible exception of on-demand video) has an unproven business model. I fear that as budgets begin to inevitably constrain as a result of economic conditions that iTV applications and programming will be cut or eliminated. |
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I actually anticipate a rebound in iTV enrollment due to the economic situation. Students interested in distance education, but not technically interested or capable of participating in an online course, should be looking for more opportunities for education without having to travel to campus. |
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Consumers will be slower to buy standalone set top boxes and game consoles, which often act as ITV portals. Products such as Apple TV and Tivo boxes will grow more slowly than they otherwise would have. I don't think that dollars spent per household on ItV applications will decrease substantially, but I do believe that iTV enabled homes will grow slowly over the next two years. |
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It will slow down somewhat... it depends on the depth of the crisis. Entertainment media will be one of the most recession proof markets so it will continue but not at the rates we have seen over the last few years. Slowdown in FTTH will limit the widespread adoption of interactive broadband TV but not iTV (satellite and cable). |
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The impact could be severe, if deployers of fast networks do not back the access to capital that has evaporated in the past few months. On the other hand, basic forms of iTV will improve and make more efficient the advertising messages of a new tier of advertisers, even if this is at lower bandwidth, and a more complicated technology (streaming analog video, separate but on-screen integrated web access, etc.). |
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I don't think the economy will impact this much. I think people will continue to invest in these types of technologies because they will begin to see them as necessary. |
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Television is the last "utility" before electric that a household will do with out. Interactive television could take the place of vacations and be a motivator for job retraining and education. As long as it is not used for home shopping and pornography to start, then it should be a viable solution to our economic woes. |
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The primary impediment will be a slowdown of consumer purchase of next generation intelligent TV sets which will allow for the integration of IP streams. However, an iTV light experience via cable and satellite boxes and alternate devices such as a Playstation will allow for iTV 'lite' |
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I think it will actually increase. The more content a user can access through their ISP, the less of a need they have for a cable or satellite provider, and in turn could reduce the end users overall monthly bills. Already now you are starting to see people reducing their monthly communication bills down to internet, and maybe a cell phone. Home phone, TV, movies, and web access are all provided through the internet. As WIFI coverage expands, I believe you will also see a reduction in cell phone plans as people begin using VOIP over wireless IP networks. |
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It will slow it a bit, but some advertisers may experiment a bit in this climate, some will be more conservative. There will not be major investments in infrastructure upgrades. DTV deployment will help. |